Both the US and Iran claimed victory on Wednesday morning. Both were lying. The two-week ceasefire announced by Donald Trump the night before is not the triumph that he declared. It may not be an end to the war, as welcome as the pause is, or even last the fortnight. Mr Trump said that Iran has gone through regime change. It has not. If anything, less experienced, less readable but more hardline figures are now in charge. He said that the strait of Hormuz would be open; Iran said that ships would pass through with permission, and at a price.
美国和伊朗周三上午宣称胜利。两人都在撒谎。唐纳德·特朗普前一晚宣布的为期两周的停火并非他所宣称的胜利。这可能不是战争的终结，尽管暂停令人欢迎，甚至可能持续两周。特朗普先生说伊朗经历了政权更迭。事实并非如此。如果说有什么变化，那就是经验不足、难以阅读但更强硬的人物掌权。他说霍尔木兹海峡将会开放;伊朗表示，船只在获得许可后会通过，但会有代价。
By Wednesday evening, Iranian state media said that the strait was closed after Israel unleashed a brutal assault on Lebanon: about 100 strikes in 10 minutes. Iran had insisted that Lebanon was part of the deal, while Mr Trump disagreed. This conflict has killed thousands in the region, including children, and left many more exhausted, terrified and traumatised, while the aggressors have openly boasted of their intent to commit war crimes.
到周三晚上，伊朗官方媒体称，在以色列对黎巴嫩发动残酷攻击后，海峡已被关闭：10 分钟内约 100 次空袭。伊朗坚称黎巴嫩是协议的一部分，而特朗普则持不同意见。这场冲突已在该地区造成数千人死亡，包括 儿童，更多人身心俱疲、恐惧和创伤，而侵略者公开 宣称他们有意实施战争罪行。
On Tuesday, Mr Trump threatened that “a whole civilisation will die tonight”. By day’s end a peace deal was “very far along”. The two sides are due to meet in Islamabad on Friday. Strikingly, Mr Trump accepted Iran’s 10-point plan as the basis for talks. But that plan exposes the gulf on issues including sanctions relief, the strait of Hormuz, missiles and enriched uranium. The war has surely convinced Tehran that nuclear weapons are key to future survival.
周二，特朗普威胁说“今晚整个文明将灭亡”。到一天结束时，和平协议“进展非常顺利”。双方定于周五在伊斯兰堡会面。令人瞩目的是，特朗普接受了伊朗的十点计划作为谈判的基础。但 该计划暴露了在制裁解除、霍尔木兹海峡、导弹和浓缩铀等问题上的鸿沟。这场战争无疑让德黑兰相信 核武器是未来生存的关键 。
The US has squandered tens of billions of dollars, burned through its interceptors and torched relations with allies. That may not bother Mr Trump, who had premised victory on the conditional reopening of a waterway that was not closed prior to the conflict. But the war has also spooked markets, raised prices at home and showed signs of fracturing his Maga base.
美国挥霍了数百亿美元 ，耗尽了拦截器，并破坏了与盟友的关系。这或许不会困扰特朗普先生，他曾以有条件重新开放一条冲突前未关闭的水道获胜为前提。但战争也让市场感到恐慌，国内物价上涨，并显示出分裂他马加 党基础的迹象。
Mr Trump chose to believe Benjamin Netanyahu’s assurances that this would be a short and easy war, but soon found himself seeking an exit. Having finally persuaded the US to join forces against Iran, the Israeli prime minister has achieved none of his stated aims and is left with a weaker but less predictable adversary. Israel has wrecked relations with Gulf states and turned US opinion, already alienated by its war in Gaza, more decisively against it.
特朗普选择相信本杰明·内塔尼亚胡关于这场短暂且轻松的战争的保证，但很快他发现自己开始寻求退出。以色列总理最终说服美国联手对抗伊朗， 但他未实现任何既定目标 ，面临的是一个更弱但更难预测的对手。以色列破坏了与海湾国家的关系 ，并使美国舆论 ——因加沙战争而疏远——变得更加果断地反对它。
The Iranian regime can count survival as a kind of success. But senior leaders are dead, its already battered economy is on its knees and essential infrastructure has been smashed. And the people are likely to face yet greater repression.
伊朗政权可以把生存视为一种成功。但高级领导人已去世，本已受创的经济陷入瘫痪，关键基础设施被摧毁。而人民很可能会面临更严重的镇压。
With strikes traded across the region on Wednesday, Gulf powers are also fuming. They did not want this war to start, but now the US is walking away while leaving an angrier and still dangerous Iran. Their reputations as safe destinations for tourism and investment are shredded and their key sea artery remains choked.
随着周三该地区的空袭交火，海湾国家也感到愤怒。他们不希望这场战争爆发，但现在美国却选择撤退，留下一个更加愤怒且依然危险的伊朗。它们作为旅游和投资安全目的地的声誉被撕裂，关键的海脉依然被堵塞。
The war has destabilised the region and normalised talk of war crimes, further trashing the idea of a rules-based order. Restrictions on transit will continue to damage humanitarian aid operations and raise prices worldwide, hitting the poorest hardest.
战争使该地区动荡，使战争罪行的讨论变得正常化，进一步破坏了基于规则的秩序理念。对交通的限制将继续损害人道主义援助行动，推高全球物价，对最贫困群体打击最为严重。
The only real winners are arms manufacturers, Russia – its coffers refilled with oil revenues – and arguably China, at least for now. It looks like a more stable and predictable power, and the US has pivoted away from the Pacific.
唯一真正的赢家是军火制造商、俄罗斯——其金库因石油收入而重新充盈 ——还有可以说是中国 ，至少目前如此。看起来它是一个更稳定、更可预测的强国，美国也已经远离了太平洋。
This is a strategic defeat for the US that will resound for decades, and a clear sign of its systemic failures. Yet, given the costs of this reckless and illegal war, the best-case scenario may be that Mr Trump, characteristically scorning reality, continues to claim this as a triumph.
