$30m an hour: big oil reaping huge war windfall from consumers, analysis finds
每小时3000万美元:分析发现,大型石油公司从消费者那里获得了巨大的战争暴利
Exclusive: Climate action blockers including Saudi Arabia, Russia and major fossil fuel firms set to make extra $234bn by end of 2026
独家报道:包括沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯及主要化石燃料公司在内的气候行动阻挠者预计将在2026年底前额外赚取2340亿美元
The world’s top 100 oil and gas companies banked more than $30m every hour in unearned profit in the first month of the US-Israeli war in Iran, according to exclusive analysis for the Guardian. Saudi Aramco, Gazprom and ExxonMobil are among the biggest beneficiaries of the bonanza, meaning key opponents of climate action continue to prosper.
据《卫报》独家分析,全球百大石油和天然气公司在美以伊朗战争首个月内,每小时积累超过3000万美元的未应得利润。沙特阿美、俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司和埃克森美孚是这场繁荣中最大的受益者之一,这意味着气候行动的主要反对者继续繁荣发展。
The conflict pushed the price of oil to an average of $100 (£74) a barrel in March, leading to estimated windfall war profits for the month of $23bn for the companies. Oil and gas supplies will take months to return to pre-war levels and the companies will make $234bn by the end of the year if the oil price continues to average $100. The analysis uses data from a leading intelligence provider, Rystad Energy, analysed by Global Witness.
这场冲突使石油价格在三月平均达到每桶 100 美元(74 英镑),导致两家公司在当月的战争利润估计达 230 亿美元。石油和天然气供应将需要数月时间才能恢复到战前水平,如果油价持续平均 100 美元,到年底两公司将赚取 2340 亿美元。分析数据来自领先的情报提供商 Rystad Energy,由 Global Witness 分析。
The excess profits come from the pockets of ordinary people as they pay high prices to fill up their vehicles and power their homes, as well as from businesses incurring higher energy bills. Dozens of countries have cut fuel taxes to help struggling consumers, meaning those nations, including Australia, South Africa, Italy, Brazil and Zambia, are raising less money for public services.
这些多余利润来自普通人的口袋,他们支付高昂的费用来加油和供电,同时企业也承担了更高的能源账单。数十个国家已降低燃油税以帮助挣扎中的消费者,这意味着包括澳大利亚、南非、意大利、巴西和赞比亚在内的国家为公共服务筹集资金减少。
伊朗战争带来的巨大石油集团如何从中牟利——最新消息
Pressure is growing for windfall taxes on the war profits of oil and gas companies, with the European Commission considering a request from the finance ministers of Germany, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Austria to “send a clear message that those who profit from the consequences of war must do their part to ease the burden on the general public”.
对石油和天然气公司战争利润征收暴利税的压力日益增长,欧盟委员会正在考虑德国、西班牙、意大利、葡萄牙和奥地利财政部长的请求 ,“向那些从战争后果中获利的人必须尽一份力减轻公众负担”。
“It would make it possible to finance temporary relief, especially for consumers, and curb rising inflation, without placing additional burdens on public budgets,” the ministers said in a letter on 4 April. The EU’s fossil fuel bill has risen by €22bn since the start of the Iran war.
部长们在 4 月 4 日的一封信中表示 :“这将使得临时救助,尤其是针对消费者,抑制不断上升的通胀成为可能,同时不会给公共预算带来额外负担。”自伊朗战争开始以来,欧盟的化石燃料账目已上涨 220 亿欧元 。
Aramco is by far the biggest winner, estimated to make a war profit of $25.5bn in 2026 if the oil price averages $100. That is on top of the huge profits habitually made by the majority state-owned Saudi company – $250m a day between 2016 to 2023. Saudi Arabia has for decades led successful efforts to block and delay international climate action.
阿美无疑是最大的赢家,如果油价平均达到 100 美元,预计 2026 年战争利润将达到 255 亿美元。这还不包括这家国有控股沙特公司惯常获得的巨额利润——2016 年至 2023 年间每天 2.5 亿美元。几十年来,沙特阿拉伯一直领导着阻挠和拖延国际气候行动的成功努力。
Three Russian companies – Gazprom, Rosneft and Lukoil – stand to make an estimated $23.9bn in Iran-related war profits by the end of the year. The conflict has benefited Vladimir Putin’s treasure chest for his own war in Ukraine, with Russia receiving oil export revenues of $840m a day in March, 50% higher than in February, according to analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
三家俄罗斯公司——俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司、俄罗斯石油公司和卢克石油——预计到年底将获得约 239 亿美元的伊朗相关战争利润。根据能源与清洁空气研究中心的分析,这场冲突为普京在乌克兰的战争带来了丰厚的资金,俄罗斯在三月每天获得 8.4 亿美元的石油出口收入,比二月高出 50%。
ExxonMobil, which has a long record of denying climate change, will take in $11bn in unearned war profits in 2026 if the $100 price endures. Shell will get a $6.8bn boost. The value of both companies, like others, has risen significantly due to increases in share prices in the month after the Iran war began: ExxonMobil is worth $118bn more, Shell $34bn more.
埃克森美孚长期否认气候变化 ,如果 100 美元价格持续,2026 年将获得 110 亿美元的非劳动战争利润。壳牌将获得 68 亿美元的提升。两家公司及其他公司因伊朗战争爆发后一个月股价上涨而大幅上涨 :埃克森美孚市值增加了 1180 亿美元,壳牌市值增加了 340 亿美元。
Chevron is on track to make windfall profits from the Iran war of $9.2bn, according to the analysis. The company’s chief executive, Mike Wirth, has also benefited, selling $104m worth of Chevron shares between January and March.
根据分析,雪佛龙有望从伊朗战争中获得 92 亿美元的暴利。公司首席执行官迈克·沃斯也受益,在 1 月至 3 月间出售了价值 1.04 亿美元的雪佛龙股票 。

沙特阿拉伯吉达阿美石油设施的储罐。如果油价平均达到 100 美元,公司预计在 2026 年将获得额外 255 亿美元的利润。 照片:Amr Nabil/美联社
The impact of the Iran war is likely to be long lasting, with the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, on Monday describing it as the biggest shock ever to the global energy market.
伊朗战争的影响可能将持久,国际能源署局长法提赫·比罗尔周一称这是全球能源市场有史以来最大的冲击 。
Soaring oil and gas prices led the UN’s climate chief, Simon Stiell, to warn in mid-March: “Fossil fuel dependency is ripping away national security and sovereignty, and replacing it with subservience and rising costs.” He said renewable energy could insulate people and nations from price hikes: “Sunlight doesn’t depend on narrow and vulnerable shipping straits.”
油气价格飙升导致联合国气候事务负责人西蒙·斯蒂尔在三月中旬警告 :“对化石燃料的依赖正在撕裂国家安全和主权,取而代之的是屈从和不断上升的成本。”他说,可再生能源可以保护人们和国家免受价格上涨的影响:“阳光不依赖狭窄且脆弱的航运海峡。”
The Iran war profits for oil and gas companies add to what has been for decades a supremely lucrative business for petrostates and shareholders. The oil and gas sector has made an average of $1tn a year in pure profit every year for the last half century, and much more in crisis years like 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The fossil fuel sector also benefits from explicit subsidies that totalled $1.3tn in 2022, according to the International Monetary Fund.
伊朗战争中石油和天然气公司的利润,使石油国和股东数十年来一直极为盈利的业务更加丰富。过去半个世纪,石油和天然气行业每年纯净利润平均达到 1 万亿美元 ,而在 2022 年俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰的危机年份则更多。根据国际货币基金组织的数据,化石燃料行业还受益于 2022 年总计 13 万亿美元的明确补贴 。
Patrick Galey, the head of news investigations at Global Witness, said: “Moments of global crisis continue to translate into bumper profits for oil majors while ordinary people pay the price. Until governments kick their fossil fuel addiction, all of our spending power will be held hostage to the whims of strongmen.”
全球见证新闻调查负责人帕特里克·盖利表示:“全球危机时刻持续转化为石油巨头的丰厚利润,而普通人却为此付出代价。除非各国政府摆脱对化石燃料的依赖,否则我们所有的消费力都将被强人摆布为人质。”
Jess Ralston, the head of energy at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said: “This oil and gas crisis is illustrating yet again the cost of our dependence on volatile fossil fuels.
能源与气候情报单位能源主管杰斯·拉尔斯顿表示:“这场石油和天然气危机再次说明了我们对易燃化石燃料依赖所付出的代价。
“Investing in net zero technologies is not only the route to permanent energy security, it’s also the only way to get the climate system back into balance. Calls to increase fossil fuel production and row back on net zero measures in the face of this new crisis would simply undermine our energy security and increase our exposure to damaging climate impacts.”
“投资净零技术不仅是实现永久能源安全的途径,也是让气候系统恢复平衡的唯一途径。在这场新危机面前呼吁增加化石燃料产量并减少净零排放措施,只会削弱我们的能源安全,增加我们对有害气候影响的暴露。”
Beth Walker, an energy policy expert at the E3G thinktank, said: “Governments should use taxes on windfall profits to accelerate the transition to green energy, rather than deepen dependence on fossil fuels.”
E3G 智库能源政策专家贝丝·沃克表示:“政府应利用对暴利的税收加快向绿色能源的转型,而非加深对化石燃料的依赖。”
Saudi Aramco, Shell and TotalEnergies declined to comment and ExxonMobil, Chevron, Gazprom, Petrobras and ADNOC did not respond to requests for comment.
沙特阿美、壳牌和道达尔能源拒绝置评,埃克森美孚、雪佛龙、俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司、巴西石油公司和 ADNOC 均未回应置评请求。
The estimated war profits were calculated using Rystad Energy’s UCube database, which integrates global field-by-field data, news and intelligence and takes into account oil and gas demand to project how much each field can supply.
预计的战争利润是利用 Rystad Energy 的 UCube 数据库计算的,该数据库整合了全球逐田数据、新闻和情报,并考虑石油和天然气需求,预测每个油田的供应量。

一名工作人员在内罗毕的道达尔能源加油站操作加油站的加油站,因伊朗战争引发的全球动荡导致燃油价格上涨。 照片:Thomas Mukoya/路透社
The windfall war profits were calculated by comparing the free cash flow generated from oil and gas production in March when oil was at an average $100 a barrel, compared with the $70 price before the Iran war. This data is the estimated upstream profit, after taxes and royalties, and capital and operating expenditure.
暴利的战争利润是通过比较3月份油气生产产生的自由现金流(当时石油平均每桶100美元)与伊朗战争前70美元的价格进行比较计算的。这些数据是扣除税费和特许权费后,以及资本和运营支出后的估计上游利润。
People in countries that are increasing their renewable energy capacity are shielded from some of the price rises and war profits. Wind and solar power in the UK in March meant £1bn of gas imports were avoided. From 2010-25, wind power saved consumers an estimated £100bn.
那些正在提升可再生能源容量的国家,人们则免受部分物价上涨和战争利润的影响。英国三月份的风能和太阳能使得避免了 10 亿英镑的天然气进口 。2010 年至 2025 年间,风能为消费者节省了估计 1000 亿英镑 。
Maria Pastukhova, energy transition programme leader at E3G, said that as long as homes, transport and industry remain tied to oil and gas, the UK and other fossil fuel importers remained exposed to global price shocks driven by conflict, chokepoints and market contagion.
E3G 能源转型项目负责人玛丽亚·帕斯图霍娃表示,只要住房、交通和工业仍与石油和天然气挂钩,英国及其他化石燃料进口国仍将面临由冲突、瓶颈和市场传染引发的全球价格冲击。
“It doesn’t matter whether the molecules come from the North Sea or overseas; the UK exposure remains,” she said. “More UK fossil fuel production is therefore a weak answer to energy insecurity.”
“分子来自北海还是海外都无关紧要;英国的暴露依然存在,“她说。“因此,增加英国化石燃料生产是应对能源不安全的软弱回应。”
A UK government spokesperson said: “The government is determined to fight people’s corner in this crisis. We are driving further and faster for clean homegrown power that we control to protect the British people and bring down bills for good. We have also acted to prevent unfair practices like price-gouging, help those who rely on heating oil, and ensure households and businesses get a fair deal on their bills now.”
英国政府发言人表示:“政府决心在这场危机中为人民争取权益。我们正加速推动清洁的本土电力,以保护英国人民,彻底降低账单。我们还采取措施防止如抬高价格等不公平行为,帮助依赖取暖油的人群,并确保家庭和企业现在能获得公平的账单。”